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Pol Sci Notes Ch 11
Introduction to American Politics (Pol 101)
University of Mississippi
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Pol Sci Notes Ch 11
Public Opinion
- Collective Attitudes and beliefs of individuals on one or more issues
- What the public thinks...
The Role of Public Opinion in a Democracy:
- Why Public Opinion ought to / should matter (normative): ● “Unless mass views have some place in the shaping of policy, all talk about democracy is nonsense.” - V Key
- Why Public Opinion does matter (empirical): ● Politicians act as though they believe the public is keeping tabs on them ● If politicians don’t listen to the people, they are less likely to be reelected
Polls:
- Public Opinion Polls: ● Scientific efforts to estimate what an entire group thinks about an issue by asking a smaller sample of the group of its opinion
- How do they work? ● The basics - Ask good questions, ask an appropriate sample ● Types of polls (refer to the ch)
Sampling:
- Portion of the population that is selected to participate in a pol - Sample Bias: ● Getting a sample that is not representative of the broader population - How many people are needed? ● National study = 330 million people - 1,200 - 1, - Sampling Error:
- I + / - 3% ● 95% chance the real figure for the whole population is within 3% of that reported ● Accurate within 3% points 95% of the time ● Within the margin, then we can’t predict the views
Question Wording:
- 4 Main Points
● Respondents should be asked about things they know and have thought about ● Questions should not be ambiguous - Make questions clear and concise and with one meaning ● Avoid loaded meanings ● Avoid leading questions or designed to get a specific answer (Push Poll)
- Leading Questions
- Loaded / Assumptive Questions
- Double-Barreled Questions
- Jargon - technical terms related to a specific topic
- Double Negatives
- Bad Response Options
- Confusing Response Scale Options
Accuracy of Polls:
- Often very accurate: ● Generally can pick the winner of the election ● More accurate the closer one gets to the election
- But, there are reliability problems in measuring public opinion ● Face-to-Face interviewing is best, but it is difficult to generate a random sample ● Random digit dialing is useful, but the rise of cell phones makes this slightly more difficult - Especially when trying to get a sample by geography (area codes don’t mean what they use to)
Polls: What to Watch For:
- Source -
- Method - internet, phone, etc.
- Sample - sample error - if you don’t see it don’t even bother
- Question wording -
- Proper Interpretation of Results
Two Competing Views of Citizenship:
- Ideal Democratic Citizen ● Virtuous citizen concerned for the common good ● Recognizes that democracy carries obligations as well as rights ● Informed about politics and current events
Apolitical , self-interested citizen
Fact that we often look to those who “look like” us when forming opinions
Characteristics of the group
However, each person’s political socialization is unique
But people with similar backgrounds tend to have similar political opinions
The Rationale Electorate?
- How does the public as a whole behave as the ideal democratic citizen,but individuals look like the self-interested, apolitical type? ● Polls show this through Aggregation ● The sum of the public’s attitudes ● Rational Ignorance - State of being uninformed about politics bcae of the cost in time and energy - Use Shortcuts for our information and political decision making ● Online processing - scoreboard in our head ● Two step flow of information - opinion leaders ● Heuristics - rules of thumb - political party
Pol Sci Notes Ch 11
Course: Introduction to American Politics (Pol 101)
University: University of Mississippi
