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Abstract in The Covid-19

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Practical Research 1 (PR1)

145 Documents
Students shared 145 documents in this course
Academic year: 2020/2021
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Holy Child Educational Center, Inc. Highway 1, San Jose, Iriga City

Senior Highschool Department

Abstract: COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries, possibly because of differing demographics, socioeconomics, surveillance, and policy responses. Here, we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines, a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID- outbreak. Methods: We applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility, testing, and personal protective behaviors (through a “Minimum Health Standards” policy, MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID- 19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon, Central Visayas, and the National Capital Region). We estimated effects of control measures, key epidemiological parameters, and interventions. Findings: Population age structure, contact rates, mobility, testing, and MHS were sufficient to explain the Philippines epidemic based on the good fit between modelled and reported cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. The model indicated that MHS reduced the probability of transmission per contact by 13-27%. The February 2021 case detection rate was estimated at ~8%, population recovered at ~9%, and scenario projections indicated high sensitivity to MHS adherence. Interpretation: COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines are driven by age, contact structure, mobility, and MHS adherence. Continued compliance with low-cost MHS should help the Philippines control the epidemic until vaccines are widely distributed, but disease resurgence may be occurring due to a combination of low population immunity and detection rates and new variants of concern. Funding: This work was supported by the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific. Tagalog translation of the abstract (Appendix 2).

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Abstract in The Covid-19

Course: Practical Research 1 (PR1)

145 Documents
Students shared 145 documents in this course

University: West Visayas State University

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Holy Child Educational Center, Inc.
Highway 1, San Jose, Iriga City
Senior Highschool Department
Abstract:
COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and
middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income
countries, possibly because of differing demographics,
socioeconomics, surveillance, and policy responses. Here, we
investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in
the Philippines, a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19
outbreak. Methods: We applied an age-structured compartmental
model that incorporated time-varying mobility, testing, and personal
protective behaviors (through a “Minimum Health Standards”
policy, MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID-
19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions
(Calabarzon, Central Visayas, and the National Capital Region).
We estimated effects of control measures, key epidemiological
parameters, and interventions. Findings: Population age structure,
contact rates, mobility, testing, and MHS were sufficient to explain
the Philippines epidemic based on the good fit between modelled
and reported cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. The model
indicated that MHS reduced the probability of transmission per
contact by 13-27%. The February 2021 case detection rate was
estimated at ~8%, population recovered at ~9%, and scenario
projections indicated high sensitivity to MHS adherence.
Interpretation: COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines are driven by
age, contact structure, mobility, and MHS adherence. Continued
compliance with low-cost MHS should help the Philippines control
the epidemic until vaccines are widely distributed, but disease
resurgence may be occurring due to a combination of low
population immunity and detection rates and new variants of
concern. Funding: This work was supported by the World Health
Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific. Tagalog
translation of the abstract (Appendix 2).
i

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